The Time Between Events

While the Poisson distribution counts how many events happen in a fixed interval, the Exponential Distribution measures the time between those events. It models the waiting time until the next independent event occurs.

f(x)=λeλxfor x0f(x) = \lambda e^{-\lambda x} \quad \text{for } x \ge 0

The Cumulative Density Function (CDF) is extremely useful for calculating probabilities, as integrating exe^{-x} is straightforward:

P(Xx)=1eλxP(X \le x) = 1 - e^{-\lambda x}

Parameters and Properties

  • λ\lambda (Rate): The average number of events per unit of time (same as Poisson).
  • Mean (E[X]E[X]): 1λ\frac{1}{\lambda} (the average wait time)
  • Variance (Var(X)Var(X)): 1λ2\frac{1}{\lambda^2}
Intuition
The Connection to Poisson

If a call center receives an average of 6 calls per hour (Poisson with λ=6\lambda = 6), then the average time between any two calls is 1/61/6 of an hour, or 10 minutes. The Exponential distribution perfectly complements Poisson: Poisson is discrete (counts of events), while Exponential is continuous (time between them).

The Memoryless Property

Exponential distributions have a fascinating (and often frustrating) property: they don't remember the past.

P(X>s+tX>s)=P(X>t)P(X > s+t \mid X > s) = P(X > t)

If the average wait for a bus is 10 minutes, and you've already waited 5 minutes, the expected wait for the next bus is still 10 minutes. The universe doesn't "owe" you a bus just because you've been patient!

Advanced Practice

Example 1: Server Lifespan

medium

A web server crashes on average once every 50 days, following an exponential distribution. What is the probability that the server runs for more than 100 days without crashing?

Example 2: The Memoryless Wait

hard

Customers arrive at a store at a rate of 2 per hour (λ=2\lambda = 2). You have already been waiting 30 minutes (0.5 hours) for a customer, and none have arrived. What is the probability that you will have to wait another full hour for a customer to arrive?