While the Poisson distribution counts how many events happen in a fixed interval, the Exponential Distribution measures the time between those events. It models the waiting time until the next independent event occurs.
The Cumulative Density Function (CDF) is extremely useful for calculating probabilities, as integrating is straightforward:
Parameters and Properties
- (Rate): The average number of events per unit of time (same as Poisson).
- Mean (): (the average wait time)
- Variance ():
If a call center receives an average of 6 calls per hour (Poisson with ), then the average time between any two calls is of an hour, or 10 minutes. The Exponential distribution perfectly complements Poisson: Poisson is discrete (counts of events), while Exponential is continuous (time between them).
The Memoryless Property
Exponential distributions have a fascinating (and often frustrating) property: they don't remember the past.
If the average wait for a bus is 10 minutes, and you've already waited 5 minutes, the expected wait for the next bus is still 10 minutes. The universe doesn't "owe" you a bus just because you've been patient!
Advanced Practice
Example 1: Server Lifespan
A web server crashes on average once every 50 days, following an exponential distribution. What is the probability that the server runs for more than 100 days without crashing?
Example 2: The Memoryless Wait
Customers arrive at a store at a rate of 2 per hour (). You have already been waiting 30 minutes (0.5 hours) for a customer, and none have arrived. What is the probability that you will have to wait another full hour for a customer to arrive?